From Reluctant Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro.

A surprise raid on the capital under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the foreign force announces its intention to govern indefinitely.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once imagined, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be fighting for this long.”

Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to voice condemnation. But offering any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, determines results.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”