A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
