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The direst potential impacts of the climate emergency for the UK have been detailed by researchers, including a searing 4C increase in temperatures to a 2-metre surge in sea levels. An alternative projection envisions a decline of 6C in temperatures following the shutdown of key Atlantic Ocean currents, which would severely impact food production and energy needs.

Plausible Events, Not Forecasts

These impacts, some of which are associated with climate tipping points, are viewed as low probability but plausible. The scientists said that these scenarios plugged a hole in planning that had left the UK not ready for worst-case results.

"The severe weather events we have mapped aren’t predictions, but they are possible," commented the professor who directed the analysis. "The UK has been making preparations lacking the frameworks to plan for extreme possibilities. We've now provided decision-makers what they need to prepare for future conditions they pray never occur, but can’t afford to ignore."

A Spectrum of Harsh Climate Scenarios

A further series of worst-case scenarios sets out the potential extent of harsh climate between now and the year 2100. These suggest that temperatures could rocket in certain periods by up to 6C above historical levels, while precipitation could be 300% of normal levels.

The chance of the worst-case outcomes happening could not be calculated due to unknown factors about what measures will be enacted to address global heating and how the Earth's systems will behave. This approach was described as similar to security threat evaluations or stress tests for financial systems.

Critical Possibility Highlights

• 4C Temperature Rise: Planetary heating soaring past 4C by 2100 could happen if international cooperation fails or if vicious cycles including the tropical forests perishing unleash its huge repository of carbon. This would lead to extreme and prolonged heat domes and droughts affecting the UK in summer.
• Ocean Circulation Failure: A key circulation system, the North Atlantic current, is losing strength and becoming unstable due to global heating. A collapse starting around 2030 would lead to a six-degree temperature drop in the UK. "Crop production would struggle enormously and freshwater availability would be completely altered," noted Arnell.
• Accelerated Coastal Flooding: A increase of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could occur if polar ice in the polar regions disintegrate quickly, submerging seaside communities. Differing from the other scenarios, this possibility is already known by infrastructure experts.
• Pollution Paradox: Global averages could also be increased by about 0.75C if pollution from industry is rapidly cleaned up. This unexpected result occurs because aerosol particles from fossil fuel combustion scatter sunlight from reaching the ground.

Building Resilience Against the Extreme

The severe models could be used to inform the building of critical national infrastructure, such as housing developments, energy plants and water management networks. Knowledge about these future hazards could also speed the push to slash greenhouse gas emissions.

The research created the worst-case scenarios using a blend of real-world events, digital projections and established principles. The possibilities omit potential global problems like the agricultural collapse and resource wars.

The project was commissioned as part of a official climate resilience programme. Earlier reports have cautioned that insufficient focus was being paid to low‐likelihood but high‐impact risks.

The government's climate advisors has recommended that the UK must "adapt to 2C" and evaluate the risks for severe warming. Previous adaptation plans have been labeled being "very weak" by environmental groups.

A national response commented: "Global warming is at the center of this government’s agenda, both building resilience and becoming a renewable energy leader. It is essential that the UK is resilient for the impacts."