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An ex-colonel from the special forces, minister of state Al Carns has recently been making strategic moves warning that the UK needs to be preparing for war with Russia.

“The threat of conflict is knocking on Europe’s door again. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to prevent it,” he said, in comments that exceed previous admonitions by his boss, the defence secretary.

“As a whole society – what is their role if we get caught in an fight for survival, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a armed campaign?”

It was stark language from the 45-year-old Scottish-born MP, who has had an exceptionally swift rise to his role of armed forces minister.

Rapid Rise to Prominence

And inevitably for a politician with a background in the armed forces, there is speculation about whether he is future leadership material – as with, at various points, other military figures before him.

This time, however, some ruling party MPs think there could be a genuine possibility of Carns being a candidate if and when the opportunity presents itself.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been involved in politics for longer than it seems, as a former military adviser to multiple previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the danger of being overhyped as a politician with a backstory colleagues think will appeal to the public – without enough thought of whether they have the track record and political instincts to make it to the top.

Military Career and Transition

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and state educated, before enlisting in the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He advanced his career and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “for gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a surprise when he resigned from the armed forces after 24 years of service to run as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, just prior to he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately earmarked as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a minister for veterans affairs straight after the 2024 election. He was elevated later that year to the more senior role with a portfolio covering all the military.

Media Presence and Political Attacks

With a commanding presence, Carns has been an occasional media performer for the government, and has been an sharp partisan operator when putting pressure on rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to set a new global benchmark this year along with former military colleagues by climbing Mount Everest in under five days without acclimatising on the mountain, aided by xenon gas.

Leadership Speculation and Internal Caution

His name entered the conversation as a possible future leader seriously around the time of a leadership election last autumn, when his supporters began canvassing colleagues about a run for the job. That failed to get off the ground, with the prime minister's office strongly supporting another candidate.

Since then, profiles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to stop from challenging the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be leadership material, others think he is making himself appear overly eager when there is no vacancy at the top. There is also a wariness about the rapid rise of a high flyer from outside politics.

“It's not proven that being senior in the military equates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” notes one MP. “He is an unknown quantity.”